In my National Interest editorial linked here, I predict that the North Korean government will collapse within ten years. Although the regime’s inflexibility and willingness to use deadly force virtually ensures that change will be painful, North Korea’s drive to both build deliverable nuclear weapons and maintain economic sustainability will prove imcompatible over time, particularly because the weaponization program will put Pyongyang increasingly at odds with Beijing (as I describe in my Caixin article, “Why Korean Reunification is in China’s Strategic Interest“). As China-North Korea relations continue to sour, I believe that the potential for a US-China-South Korea deal on Korean reunification is becoming a possibility, albeit a still remote one.
